The following is a selection of articles which predicted the events of 24th June 2023. The analyses, more than a year old, contained here have found confirmation yesterday. At the end of this article there will be some considerations about possible future scenarios. [to request a consultancy of Kallipolis see the relevant page]

 

The almost coup d’état in Moscow was the result of dissatisfaction with the results of the war in Ukraine.

 

The main problem is the Russian misunderstanding of Ukraine as pointed out by Solzhenitsyn (Solzhenitsyn on Ukraine 1968 [Kallipolis, 22 May 2022]) and a misunderstanding of Ukrainian geography (Into the Roadless Land: The Russian invasion of Ukraine [Kallipolis, 27 May 2022]). The natural barriers have been neglected even if important in Roman times (Mykolaiv and Roman Poetry [Kallipolis, 27 July 2022]). The cult of Crimea as a fortress does not stand the test of history. A land difficult to defend and endlessly overrun by invaders (Crimea a defenceless myth [Kallipolis, 6 January 2023]).

 

The neglect of the differences between Ukrainian culture and Russian reveal the rather weak understanding of one’s own culture (Did Putin forget his Russian? [Kallipolis, 26 April 2023]) and language (The politics of the Ukrainian Alphabet [Kallipolis, 7 September 2023])

 

The Special Operation did not explain the fact that the aim of war is victory whatever the cost, as Clausewitz had pointed out (Clausewitz on Ukraine [Kallipolis, 10 June 2022]). The price of defeat would be a partition like that seen during the Russian civil war in 1917-1921 (Putin’s plan for the partition of Russia [Kallipolis, 15 July 2022]). Defeat reopens the question of who will control Kaliningrad in the future (All roads lead to Kaliningrad [Kallipolis, 8, July 2022]).

The parallel with the revolution of March 1917 is important. Russia has banned women groups who protested the current situation. International Women’s Day 8 March celebrates an event in Moscow of 1917 (Women’s protests in Russia [Kallipolis, 5 June 2023])

 

The breakup of Russia is occurring now not with a dismemberment of the Federation but the creation of paramilitary groups (private military companies, or PMC) which are controlling areas, as if they were medieval fiefdoms. A situation which recalls the breakup of Yugoslavia. (How Russia is outsourcing its war effort to paramilitary groups [Kallipolis 9 May 2023]). The invasion of Belgorod this year is consolidating the importance of PMC as one has seen with Wagner’s march towards Moscow yesterday. (Belgorod [Kallipolis 23 May 2023])

 

The NATO reaction was a golden opportunity for the alliance to test its allies and to fight a proxy war. (Democracy and Imperialism: Classical Athens and NATO [Kallipolis 18 June 2023]). NATO has included Finland (A tale of polar diplomacy and suppressed sorrow: The end of an era for Finland and the world [Kallipolis 6 June 2022]) and probably Sweden as well (Swedish neutrality between the Cossacks and Ukraine [Kallipolis 3 June 2022]) in its alliance.

 

China clearly stands to benefit from the conflict from every point of view since the outset of the special operation (Ukraine and the Thucydides Trap [Kallipolis, 5 August 2022])

 

One future scenario is that Russia has declared Ukrainian borders as meaningless. Russian defeat will result in redrawing of its borders and concessions (Admiral Togo and Ukraine [Kallipolis 25th June 2023]). The only way borders may be redrawn is by a careful analysis history and precedent (Ukraine vs Russia: The final battle for the past legacy [Kallipolis, 26 September 2022]), remembering that both countries owe their culture and religion from Constantinople (Constantinople, centre of Europe and the Middle East [Kallipolis, 19 August 2022]).