23rd May 2023
On may 22 2023 Russia was invaded. By who and for what is not clear. It is a sort of Special Operation, such as the Russians undertook on February 24th, 2022. No war declaration.
Unfortunately a year and half ago the Russian Federation has effectively thrown international law to the wind and declared that border posts represent nothing. They can be removed and crossed. The Freedom of Russia Legion, who has undertaken the latest military incursion, claims their final aim is Red Square in Moscow. This statement is in Russian and many western journalists and commentators seem unaware of this goal. This somehow summarized the problem. Russia is the enemy in the West, though little known.
The real question one should ask is: Is this the first invasion? The Russian Federation was created in 1917 after the October Revolution. Before that date the Russian empire was administered differently. So, the starting point is 1917. During the Polish Soviet war, the Russian Federation was not affected. It was Bielorussia/Bielorus which was invaded. The same with Operation Barbarossa in 1941. The first time, the Germans entered the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic after a few weeks of invading the USSR.
Indeed Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad (now Volgograd) were famously under siege by the German and Axis armies. Since their defeat Russia has not had foreign troops until May 22nd, 2023, when the Russia Freedom Legion launched an attack towards Belgorod.
Given that the Ukraine conflict appears to be a proxy war on all sides, we can leave aside who is behind it. The question is who is this Freedom of Russia Legion. If it is a Russian freedom fighting formation, as claimed by the West, then it indicates that the Russian Federation is imploding and explains why so many private military companies (PMC) are being formed (including one under the control of Gazprom: see the relevant article). If it is a foreign invasion, as the Russians claim, then it means that the West thinks the Federation cannot defend itself and may implode.
Ironically, similar considerations set the Russian Special Operation into motion last year. The Kremlin believed that, with a little push, the Kyiv government would collapse. The West somehow agreed and decided to support Zelensky’s defence effort. Who will help Russia, if it is under the same scenario?