Putin sits in parts of occupied Ukraine while the West runs around like a collective headless chicken. A clear objective would define possible discussions. The Russian position is clear: give us a reason to leave the regions we occupy. There are only two answers: either payment or defeat. The Russians are sitting back and waiting to see which it will be. The Soviet Union learned that once troops are physically present in a region, that area is under the control of those soldiers’ country. That is how Eastern Europe fell under Communist influence in 1945.
The Western collective head-in-the-sand syndrome has neglected to point out an important fact. Between the Istanbul talks of 29th -30th March 2022 and those of 16th May 2025, Russia has lost 50thousand km2 of Ukrainian occupied territory. It occupied 27% of Ukrainian territory in 2022 and today controls 18.61%. The Russian delegation in 2025 has requested the handing over of territory in which there are no Russian troops and where there have never been since 1991.
The Russian delegation has indicated that Russia will leave Ukraine in exchange for something equivalent. If not offered, they will stay. The question is why does the West not understand such a simple statement?
Such a point of view is at the heart of a truce. It is surprising that the English word for 'truce', as well as the French trêve and the Italian tregua, are derived from the Gothic term for agreement or covenant 𐍄𐍂𐌹𐌲𐌲𐍅𐌰 (‘triggwa’). It reveals that a truce is a temporary agreement outside any legal frame (the barbarian invasions represented a collapse of Roman law). What used to be called ‘a gentleman’s agreement’. Indeed 𐍄𐍂𐌹𐌲𐌲𐍅𐌰 (‘triggwa’) is connected to 𐍄𐍂𐌹𐌲𐌲𐍅𐍃 (‘triggws’) meaning ‘trust’. The Russians and Ukrainians distrust each other. So does everyone else. There is no truce on the horizon.
Thucydides takes our head out of the sand and puts our feet on the ground. The Greek word for truce does not imply trust, but a cessation of hostility: ἐκεχειρία (ekekheiria ‘hold your hands’). It is a term which became recurrent in his history when he is talking of the period 425 to 414 (Books 4-6). The discussion of a pause in the war between Athens and Sparta (431-404) was due to the defeats suffered by both powers (Sparta at Sphracteria and Athens at Amphipolis). A truce for the Greeks was a necessary but temporary move. The comedian Aristophanes makes a pun indicating that ‘holding hands’ out is what one does when begging for money. His joke goes to the heart of the matter of a truce: money. (Aristophanes Peace 908)
Peace is sacred. The term in Greek was σπονδαί ('spondai') referring to the wine libations shared by both parties which decided to seal the peace treaties before the Gods. The Ancient Egyptian term for peace 𓊵 (hpt) is represented by a hieroglyph of an altar with offerings to the Gods.
There are truces in Homer’s Iliad. They are pauses to allow leaders to fight individually, or to bury the dead. Homer does not use a specific term for truce but focuses on the holy vows for peace: ὄρκια πιστά (‘orkia pista’ trustworthy oaths). Achilles in his last words to Hector before killing him tells him that his rage is such there can be no truce or peace between them:
Ἕκτορ μή μοι ἄλαστε συνημοσύνας ἀγόρευε·
ὡς οὐκ ἔστι λέουσι καὶ ἀνδράσιν ὅρκια πιστά,
οὐδὲ λύκοι τε καὶ ἄρνες ὁμόφρονα θυμὸν ἔχουσιν,
ἀλλὰ κακὰ φρονέουσι διαμπερὲς ἀλλήλοισιν,
ὣς οὐκ ἔστ’ ἐμὲ καὶ σὲ φιλήμεναι, οὐδέ τι νῶϊν
ὅρκια ἔσσονται, πρίν γ’ ἢ ἕτερόν γε πεσόντα
αἵματος ἆσαι Ἄρηα ταλαύρινον πολεμιστήν.
παντοίης ἀρετῆς μιμνήσκεο· νῦν σε μάλα χρὴ
αἰχμητήν τ’ ἔμεναι καὶ θαρσαλέον πολεμιστήν.
οὔ τοι ἔτ’ ἔσθ’ ὑπάλυξις, ἄφαρ δέ σε Παλλὰς Ἀθήνη
ἔγχει ἐμῷ δαμάᾳ· νῦν δ’ ἀθρόα πάντ’ ἀποτίσεις
κήδε’ ἐμῶν ἑτάρων οὓς ἔκτανες ἔγχεϊ θύων.
(Hom. Il. 22.261-272)
"Talk not of oaths," the dreadful chief replies,
While anger flashed from his disdainful eyes,
"Detested as thou art, and ought to be,
Nor oath nor pact Achilles plights with thee;
Such pacts, as lambs and rabid wolves combine,
Such leagues, as men and furious lions join,
To such I call the gods! one constant state
Of lasting rancour and eternal hate:
No thought but rage, and never-ceasing strife,
Till death extinguish rage, and thought, and life.
Rouse then thy forces this important hour,
Collect thy soul, and call forth all thy power.
No farther subterfuge, no farther chance;
'Tis Pallas, Pallas gives thee to my lance.
Each Grecian ghost by thee deprived of breath,
Now hovers round, and calls thee to thy death."
(Paraphrase by Alexander Pope 1715-1720)
While Russia is waiting for something in exchange to agree to a truce or a peace according to unrealistic terms, Ukraine is looking for a complete defeat of Russia. They will not forget or forgive the invasion. Russia underestimates this feeling and Ukraine is relying on the element of surprise. Russia disregards the changes since the last Istanbul talks of 2022: Russia has lost territory in Ukraine, Finland and Sweden are part of NATO, the Baltic and the Black Sea are NATO lakes, the Baltic and Black Sea fleets have effectively ceased to exist. China is watching the demise of its ally and seizing the opportunity to annex it economically first before taking over politically. When the Crimean bridge will finally be attacked and destroyed all the cards on the table will change.
At that point the discussions will not be about a truce (the ἐκεχειρία ‘ekekheria’ of Athens 424-414) it will be about a peace treaty in which Russia will accept and recognize the full independence of Ukraine.