China has a stranglehold over Russia. If Ukraine enters any form of agreement with China, Russia will be completely surrounded. The part from the Urals to Vladivostok is already under heavy Chinese commercial influence which will be followed by political pressure. China has obtained direct control of immense swathes of Russian farmland along the Amur River. It was given disputed territory, apparently for nothing. It has strengthened the administrative and political weight of the city of Harbin, the centre of Chinese operations in Russia. China already controls the economy of Belarus, and the Baltic states are effectively cut off from Russia. Their recent severance from the electric grid was symbolic, but also of great political value.

 

The only path of freedom left for Russia is Ukraine. If it becomes dependent on China, Russia will have borders which are controlled directly or indirectly by Chinese economic and eventually political interests.

 

It was inevitable. Western Europe and the United States have been loud and clear in their fundamental lack of interest in Ukraine. Since 1991, many of the problems which have led to instability could have been solved by greater integration either into NATO or the European Union or both. Even Turkey and the United Kingdom have shown little interest in effective partnership.

 

The Russian government has offered two views of Ukraine: either it is a ‘second rate’ Russia to be annexed (in the tradition of Stolypin's circular N2 of 20th January 1910 which defined Ukrainians as non Russians, [aliens иноро́дческіе] to be russified) or else it needs to be silenced into submission. In neither case is Ukraine an equal interlocutor.

 

China sees Ukraine as a partner. The geographic location of Ukraine is ideal for China. It is connected to the Trans-Siberian railway and therefore provides a sea port (Odessa) to rail transport. It is in Europe. When the transport costs of goods made in China will be too expensive to bring across the globe by ship or rail, China could open factories of Chinese goods in Ukraine for export to the European market. They have already done this in Belarus with the Kamenski Park, an extraterritorial industrial space where Chinese citizens work with extraordinary visas in Chinese factories just outside Minsk.

 

Ukraine is the last hope for Russia. China has invested heavily in Belarus and the Baltic states are closed to Russian trade. If Ukraine is not accessible, China will have a stranglehold over the entire Russian Federation.

 

Russia has underestimated Ukraine. Yes, Europe and Russia have dismissed it over the years. Yet, China’s connection to the Russian world is historically Ukrainian. One of the most important Russian cities on the Amur River (Khabarovsk) was populated by Ukrainians during the Russian Empire. The Chinese city of Harbin had a sizable Ukrainian population.

 

When the Russian Empire broke up in 1917 one of the emerging states in the Far East was Green Ukraine (Зелений Клин), an area of 1 million square kilometres which included cities like Khabarovsk on the Amur River and Vladivostok on the Sea of Japan. The reason for this Ukrainian presence was the offer of free transportation from Ukraine for settlers starting in 1882.

 

The simplest way for the Chinese to understand the Russian Empire was the Ukrainian presence in Asia. Now, the Chinese will probably promote Ukraine to isolate and control the Russian Federation. Putin had anticipated this in his speech on November 4th, 2023, in Beijing, when he claimed Russia was a vassal state to China.